The Ministry for the Environment prepared a guidance manual for local government in NZ titled Climate Change Effect and Impacts Assessment (2nd Ed) in May 2008. I read it - well no... I skimmed it, mainly just Chapter 2 on projections of climate for NZ (which is all that would interest anyone I talk to in the near future). So here's the interesting bits:
"New Zealand temperatures are expected to increase by about 1 degree Celsius by 2040, and 2 degrees Celsius by 2090. However, there is a wide range... owing to different emission scenarios"
"The latest results suggest increased westerlies in winter and spring, along with more rainfall in the west of the North and the South Islands and dried conditions in the east and north. Conversely, in summer and autumn, the models suggest decreased frequency of westerly conditions, with drier conditions in the west of the North Island and possible rainfall increases in Gisborne and Hawke's Bay. Other changes expected are: decreased frost risk, increased incidence of high temperatures, increased frequency of extreme daily rainfalls, a possible increase in strong winds, and decreases in average snow cover". The most confident (i.e. 90% chance) predictions related to the air and ocean temperature increases and also sea level increases of at least 18-59 cm rise from 1990 levels to 2100. Just something to be aware of, kind regards to the many scientists that slaved to work this out.
As a side note, I found it interesting that within the executive summary, councils and communities were instructed to give serious consideration to infrastructure developments that will need to cope with climate conditions in 50-100 years time. A bit above and beyond their usual long term plan of 10 years!
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